The search for profit does not end once you have found the best football betting tips. There is still a lot to be done to ensure consistent profit. Money management is just as important as using the right football betting tips.
However in the rush to get their money on, most people overlook this important aspect of football betting. So what is money management? Let’s look at it in simple terms: You are betting on two football matches. You know that one will produce a profit 80% of the time and the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You would want to put more money on the match with an 80% chance of profit wouldn’t you? That is money management.
It is basically managing your money to cope with risk. So logic says that on the risky bets, you should risk less money and on the bets that are stronger, you need to stake more money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it is often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate how much to put on a team? The most common method is to use the same amount (level stake) on each selection. While this can work in the long run, in the short term you have to watch out for long sequences of losers from the bigger priced football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many is the Kelly Criterion. However, Kelly requires you to know the probability of a win. The bet size is then determined by first converting the price on offer into a probability. You then have to estimate the probability of your bet winning. The difference between the sports book’s price probability and your probability has to be positive. If it is negative, you should drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The size of the bet is then calculated using this difference in probability. A larger difference would suggest a larger investment and a small difference would suggest a small investment.
Now as you can imagine, the average person can’t estimate the probability of his football prediction winning. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, the mathematicians’ and professionals rave about this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it is great in theory – but it fails in practice. If fails for at least for 90% of the people who try to use it, and I’m guessing that’s you and me included.
Instead I prefer to use the average price available. Sports Books have studied the matches in depth and it’s not often that they get the prices wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our foes greatest strength their weakness. Yes, I know that upsets happen, but if you look at sports book prices over a long period, you will find that if they quote a result at even money, that result will occur very close to 50% of the time.
So by using this as the true probability of the result we can accurately calculate how much to invest on each football tip.